What does a 25% probability for a failed state really mean?

(Article from News24)

Clem Sunter

Since writing the column two weeks ago raising the probability of South Africa becoming a Failed State to 25%, many people have asked me what it means and what they should do about it.

Should I make sure my passport is up to date? Should I be going on an LSD (look, see, decide) trip to Australia? Should I be approaching a head hunter for job options in Europe? Should I legitimately be sending more money offshore to mitigate the declining rand? 

Should I be stocking food?

Connecting the dots

These are all valid questions which have been posed to me. Chantell Ilbury and I have always said that part of thinking like a fox is to connect the dots. You cannot just play scenarios – that’s daydreaming. You have to consider your options for each scenario and then decide what you are going to do about it depending on the probability and impact of the scenario. You can either do something now or prepare a contingency plan just in case. Either way, the whole point of the process is to improve the speed and quality of your response in chasing the opportunities and countering the threats offered by the scenarios.

So, let’s get back to the significance of a 25% probability. Pictorially, it covers an “L” or 90 degrees of a circular disc. If you spin the disc, there is a 25% probability that the needle will end up on that 90 degree segment. What is more is that if you spin it again whatever the previous result, the probability is still 25%. Like spinning a coin where you get ten heads in a row, the chances are still 50:50 that the next one will be a head. The difference between these examples and real life is that real life only happens once and therefore probabilities are far more subjective.

Recently, I had a discussion with a group from MIT in the US who tried to convince me that you can mathematically link the raising of the flags on our scenarios to their probabilities. I am not so sure because of the one time aspect of life; and so much of what happens is due to the animal spirits or irrational nature of mankind.

The bottom line is that the 25% probability on a Failed State is instinctive and should be treated as such. In other words, there is nothing scientific about it and if you have a different figure in  mind, you are quite entitled to base your actions on your figure not ours. Suffice it to say, in our mind, the Failed State scenario is no longer a wild card possibility lurking in the shadows: it is now a genuine threat, the consequences of which have to be thought through.

Impact of the scenario on you

This brings us to the second aspect that has to be considered which is the impact of the scenario on you as a business, you as a family or you as a person. If I said to you that the plane you had booked a flight on had a 25% probability of crashing, you almost certainly would not take it unless you were in a war zone and wanted to escape. The reason is a high likelihood of death in the event that the scenario materialises. Equally, if I gave you a 25% probability of being eaten by a shark when swimming off a particular beach, it would be very foolhardy of you to go in the water. One of the reasons you would not take the risk in either case is that the alternative options are usually easy to exercise: use another airline and go to another beach or swimming pool.

The impact of a Failed State scenario is far more difficult to imagine since so many varieties of a failed state exist, ranging from oppressive dictatorships through perpetual anarchy to civil war and at the extreme end genocide. No expert in the field here has adequately described the different forms that a failed state in South Africa could take. We certainly can’t, particularly as regards timing and rate of descent. 

The only thing we can state with confidence is that the rest of the world will collectively turn its back on us, apart from a few outcasts who will welcome us to the club of pariah nations.

Two categories of options

Hence, the evaluation of the overall risk of this worst case scenario i.e. probability times impact is a highly personal thing. And so too is the selection of options available which depends on individual circumstances such as age, level of wealth and education, business experience and skills, as well as the number of children and other family commitments you have in South Africa. In the case of a business, the opportunity to expand the geographical footprint outside South Africa will be linked to its range of products and services, health of its balance sheet and potential partners elsewhere.

However, options can be divided broadly into two categories: adapting your own strategies and tactics as regards your own future in light of the changing odds of the scenario; or rolling up your sleeves and taking action – however big or small it may be – to reduce the odds of the scenario itself. In other words, you become an active citizen in ensuring that South Africa does not fail.

Far be it from Chantell and myself to give you specific advice on which option you should take. 
What our 25% probability means is that you should give the matter some serious thought if you have not done so already. Then decide on appropriate action or have a contingency plan. That is what a fox would do – logically not fearfully, with a sense of purpose not despair.

Russian Economist Fears 'Failed State' in SA

(Article from Business Day Live)

Russian economist fears ‘failed state’ in SA

South Africa IS in danger of "tipping over" and becoming a failed state, according to Yuri Maltsev, a Soviet defector and economic adviser to former Russian president Mikhail Gorbachev.

Dr Maltsev said on Wednesday that South Africa was at a crossroads and there were dangerous signs of instability, such as the farm protests in the Western Cape, which some see as part of a political attempt to undermine the opposition Democratic Alliance.

"The African National Congress (ANC) is a monopoly, and power corrupts," Dr Maltsev said in an interview with Business Day. He was speaking at a forum organised by the Free Market Foundation.

"What worries me is this can be the point of no return … South Africa is at a crossroads and can tip over."

Dr Maltsev was referring to spreading social unrest, mounting corruption and plans by the governing ANC for more intervention of the state in the economy to alleviate poverty and create jobs.

If South Africa could choose the freedom of an open economy with less regulation, lower taxes and more flexible labour laws, it could "explode with economic growth and energy", Dr Maltsev said.

Nomura emerging markets analyst Peter Attard Montalto said labelling South Africa a "failed state" was to look at the issues of the economy in the wrong way.

"The whole point is that there hasn’t been enough of a dramatic shock to the system yet to push the government, ANC and associated interests into meaningfully doing something about the economy’s problems and providing the leadership required," he said.

"Hence we deal with ongoing underperformance without any ‘blow-up’ situation. Even the situation in the mining labour market does not seem to have been enough."

There are concerns that plans by Anglo American Platinum to cut as many as 14,000 jobs after mothballing four mining shafts will lead to a repeat of the wildcat strikes that hit the sector last year, leading to the loss of almost 50 lives.

Dr Maltsev said the election of business tycoon Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC deputy president was probably a good thing, although he did not approve of the way Mr Ramaphosa had acquired his wealth. Turning to broader issues, he said he was not worried by the growing Chinese presence in Africa as China seemed to be avoiding political influence. Africans could not afford to "pick and choose" who is investing in their economies, he said.

Dr Maltsev praised the formation of the Brics bloc, which groups Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. "It’s a good idea because all the countries are on the same level of economic development," he said.

Before defecting to the US in 1989, Dr Maltsev was a member of a senior Soviet economics team that worked on Mr Gorbachev’s reforms package of perestroika.

He is now a professor of economics at Carthage College in the US state of Wisconsin.

Revolt, Torture, Tyranny face an Unreformed SA

(Article from TimesLive)

Revolt, torture, tyranny face an unreformed SA

Inequality is dragging South Africa closer to its "tipping point" and becoming a failed state, says Clem Sunter.

Sunter is probably best known for the high-road/low-road scenarios he posited for South Africa in the mid-1980s and for predicting a "major attack on a Western city" in Mind of a Fox, a book he wrote with Chantell Ilbury in 2001.

A year ago, the former chairman and CEO of Anglo American's gold and uranium division, and until recently chairman of the Anglo American Chairman's Fund, believed that there was a "0%" chance that this country would become a failed state. He has since increased the odds to 25%.

"Once people get seriously upset, it takes only one event to cause the country to erupt," said Sunter, and "Marikana could have been it".

"There is a level of anarchy creeping into protests - both labour and service delivery - that hasn't been seen before, and that we've now seen in Sasolburg and Parys."

Six people were killed during the violent protests by residents opposing their area's incorporation into the Ngwathe municipality.

Zamdela township residents razed property, stoned cars and looted shops.

Police reacted with tear-gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition to disperse crowds.

Sunter believes that increasingly violent protests could become normal.

During the Arab Spring, Sunter talked to analysts researching the motives for the upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa.

"There were three factors that contributed hugely - very high youth unemployment, highly active social networks and growing alienation from the state," he said.

"We have all three."

He believes the consequences of this country not getting its act together economically, socially and politically could be dire.

"After Marikana and Sasolburg, we might be close to an Arab Spring."

Sunter has predicted three scenarios for the future of South Africa.

The first is that it stays in what he terms the "Premier League" and keeps its place as one of the world's top 53 economies. It is currently in 50th spot. Sunter believes we should be in 32nd place because we have the 32nd-biggest economy but the many problems that remain unresolved continue to create uncertainty.

Whereas a year ago Sunter gave the country a 70% chance of staying in this league, he now gives it only a 50% chance.

The second scenario is that South Africa slides peacefully into what he calls the "Second Division". These are countries that Sunter describes as poor but peaceful.

He gives South Africa a 25% chance of becoming one of these nations, with Nigeria taking over as the most influential country in Africa.

The third scenario is that South Africa becomes a failed state, a place of anarchy, warfare, hunger and disorder - like Syria or Afghanistan.

Such a state generally has high unemployment, gross income inequality and appalling human rights abuses, including routine use of torture by the police and security forces.

The country is governed either by a dictator - living in a palace among the ruins of a country in which revolt is kept in check by intimidation - or by a shifting alliance of warlords, each with a private army or militia.

Sunter said there is a 25% chance - a "real threat" - of South Africa becoming such a country.

There are two ingredients that Sunter said we need to stay in the Premier League.

The first is an inclusive leader, such as former president Nelson Mandela.

"I'm afraid [Mandela's] successors [Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma] have not been inclusive leaders, and I hope that Cyril Ramaphosa might be the someone who could bring the nation together.

"I see the move to bring Cyril back as very positive.

"It looks like our leaders are getting the message that something has to be done."

Sunter believes that, if Ramaphosa had followed Mandela into politics in the 1990s, the value of Ramaphosa's leadership might have been lost.

"We didn't know all our weaknesses then," he said.

The other way in which South Africa can improve its chances of being a functioning democracy, he said, is by "using our pockets of excellence such as the good schools".

"We should try to replicate these pockets of excellence.

"The reason we have inequality is that we don't have jobs.

"For each worker in the formal sector there are three people who don't have a job ," he said.

"People don't have jobs because the education system hasn't delivered the skills to create jobs."

Sunter has been calling for an "economic Codesa" for this reason.

"We need a cooperative model [to deal with inequality].

"There is no way the ANC can do it by itself, and business and the unions can't do it by themselves either," he said.

"This is the tipping point."

'The Collapse of Governance in South Africa?'

(Article from Politicsweb)

From Mangaung to Nkandla - a Journey to nowhere!

In the third week of December 2012 Jacob Zuma was re-elected as president of the ANC at the 53rd National Elective Conference at Mangaung (Bloemfontein) in the central Free State.

Nkandla is the personal country homestead of Zuma in rural Kwazulu-Natal.  It has also been called the "presidential compound" or "tribal village". It is an extensive complex housing his extended family, with state of the art electronic surveillance systems, helicopter landing pad, elaborate roads, underground bunkers and security personnel. What brought Nkandla into the limelight are widespread allegations that much of the country homestead has been funded by taxpayers' money.  

Zuma's redeployment by the ANC at Mangaung in December 2012 may guarantee his continued presence at Nkandla as president of the country which could put him in power up to 2019.

This journey from Mangaung to Nkandla explains the interaction between the ANC as liberation movement and the ANC as government in power and the current impact on the country. In particular, it provides a much needed understanding of the complex interaction between party and state in the present political dispensation and exposes the reasons why the current political dispensation has been failing for the past decade or more.

It has to be understood that the country's functional decline is not solely the result of Zuma's deployment in 2007 and neither will his recent redeployment in December 2012 fix the problem. What has gone wrong by 2013 can be traced right back to the political settlement of 1994.

It is part of a self-destructive process that had been embedded very deep in the political system by the political power brokers at the time. The mere appointment of a new president with a new (old) team will not solve the problem; what has been emerging now is broad system failure. It is something entirely different!

At the start of 2013 the country is in deep trouble, however, this concept will have to be explained. Suffice to state as introductory comment is the observation that Zuma's journey from Mangaung to Nkandla is expected to be a journey to nowhere. Over the past year or two, the possibility of a "failed state" has surreptitiously emerged in the media.

The concept of a "failed state" was mentioned, but not really discussed, as if the people involved were politically too scared - or ignorant - in dealing with the implications. The slow emergence of a failed state, and then very often unobserved under the radar scan of parliament, implies a certain fatal decline of a constitutional democracy and the role of political parties. Even mentioning the possibility of a failed state situation is not only serious, but has extremely dangerous implications for any state.

A document like this is not for broad public consumption as it may endanger the established and comfortable mindset of the voting public and threaten the perceived and propagated logical framework of party policy. Politicians prefer a happy voting public, not a disturbed one. This document may challenge the existing, fixed mindset - and that is politically not always welcome! It is a document for the decision maker, who does not have the luxury of deferring difficult situations. It has been written for a reader who thinks and plans for up to 2020 and beyond, for the current political dispensation is unlikely to continue past Zuma's second term in office.

The critical question by 2013 is therefore: if there are convincing facts and arguments that the current political dispensation may decay to the point of systemic collapse - a failed state - in the next five to seven years, what has to be done? This is a question that can be posed to every business executive, every activist group in civil society, and each parent with kids in school or on their way to school. It is also true for expats with family in South Africa and families with children abroad. Will there ever be an opportunity for them to return?

The unthinkable of 1994 will have to be contemplated by 2013. The country may slide into a process of governing collapse. This does not necessarily imply a civil war, but an inevitable decay of governing functions to the point of spontaneous implosion - the key functions of state just cease to exist!  Society just becomes governmentally empty - a stateless society. This was never considered in 1994; however, by 2013 it has to be argued as an alarming reality.

If spontaneous implosion of governing capabilities materialises, what becomes of government? Equally important, what happens to society and population? When society arrives at this point, is there still any meaning in a free and fair election?  If the past has not been a success, what about the future?

Dr Jan du Plessis is editor and publisher of Intersearch. 

This is an edited extract from the Intersearch Management Briefing for January 2013. Dr Du Plessis can be contacted at mb@intersearch.co.za 

Shocking Documentary on Lawlessness in Johannesburg

Louis Theroux, Law and Disorder in Johannesburg 

The beginning to Part 4 of the documentary is especially shocking when a man who is a murderer, car hijacker and house robber is interviewed.

He mentions that his last robbery was in Benoni the night before where he 'took' four cars.

The interviewer asks how he got the cars.

"We take it with a gun, what can we do?"

And to hurt people?

"Ja, the people, I will show you with your last born" and by this he means a child or baby.

"Take him to shower or to hot shower" meaning that he puts the baby under boiling water.

"Or to the oven, microwave oven. I put like this to the oven" and indicates forcefully pushing a baby inside.

"Then you see I want money."

"Take your child, I put in oven and make oven on" he indicates turning the knob.

"Or I take your wife and I put a knife here" and puts a finger across his throat. Then pulls his finger across.

"Like example, then you see the blood."

"They feel f**** all, even to kill somebody" says one of the black security guards who is with the interviewer.

The end of the documentary also provides some interesting answers to the questions of the interviewer.

'Whites excluded from charities'

(Article from Friends4Humanity)

Nelson Mandela’s ANC government announced earlier this year the implementation of the ‘second transition’ policy. The ‘second transition’ is defined as a radical call to finalize “economic freedom”. The ANC regime chose to roll out this second transition with a death blow to the most vulnerable in the European Minority community, the:

• impoverished;
• displaced;
• elderly;
• traumatized; and
• children.

Ironically, they chose to use the same strategies to marginalize the European Minority as Hitler used against the Jews. Over the past 20 years they have implemented many programs, some legislated and some not, that have as their aim the destruction of the European minority. These policies have been held up as redistribution of wealth and transformation. However, they are true to communistic guidelines with the aim to bring into line those who do not align with their views.

These include the exclusion of the European minority from business ownership, trade and employment. The European minority is also excluded from accessing tertiary education as well as school education in their home language. Their defense mechanisms have been removed through disarmament, and the removal of the effective policing structures that protected them, which places them in grave danger of being tortured and attacked.

As a result of these strategic economic policies, approximately a million of the European Minority members are now displaced and living in abject poverty, with a large percentage of the remaining members barely surviving financially. The second transition will push them over the edge into displacement. However, the immediate crisis is but two weeks away, a countdown that do not bode well for the most vulnerable members who have already been marginalized and traumatized. They will loose the one meal a day that is currently supplied by retail food chains.

The government has systematically removed any assistance or aid they may get. They are excluded from receiving state welfare or other benefits. Furthermore, Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and charities are precluded from allocating more than 9% (the demographic proportion of Europeans) of their resources to ease their plight. Government enforces this through the interception of NGO and International donor funding by the President’s Office. As a result, the European minority ethnic group affected by policies of redress has been left with no hope and absolutely no opportunities to work their way out of the situation they find themselves in.

Now the final blow

Nelson Mandela’s ANC gazetted new legislation, effective December 2, 2012 that will reduce the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) status of companies that donate to charities assisting minority members. BEE status effectively ensures that a company can obtain business in South Africa. 

This will affect orphanages, displaced people camps, old age homes, Safe houses and NGO’s similar to Childline and Rape Crisis. Although many are already forced through current legislation to refuse people assistance, the new legislation will also force them to abandon the current European Minority members.

Charities need funds to help others. Companies need funds to donate to charities. This well-orchestrated assault will effectively break the cycle and remove any recourse to destitute and vulnerable European Minority members. This will force orphanages, safe houses and old age facilities to now abandon Europeans and prohibit companies to supply the only meal to many homeless and displaced people, including the elderly and children.

Deliberately inflicting on the European Minority conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part. This in itself meets one of the five criteria to proof genocide, notwithstanding that any of the criteria should be met to meet the definition of genocide. There are detailed examples of actions taken by the South African government that meet all criteria below:

1. Killing members of the group; or
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to the group; or
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; or
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; or
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Genocide Watch determined during an intensive investigation during July this year that there is evidence that meet the first criteria; murder, rape, mutilation and torture. South African police fail to investigate or solve many of these murders, which are carried out by organized gangs, often armed with weapons that police have previously confiscated. 

The racial character of the killing is covered up by a SA government order prohibiting police from reporting murders by race. Instead the crisis is denied and the murders are dismissed as ordinary crime, ignoring the frequent mutilation of the victims’ bodies, a sure sign that these are hate crimes.

Police abuse and intimidation have proven to cause serious physical and mental harm to the European Minority, which meets the second crieteria, as set out in our article, Police: Protector or Predator?

The first three criteria automatically bring about conditions to ensure the forth and fifth criteria, compounded by deliberate actions and policies by the ANC government to ensure effectiveness.

Operation Final Countdown

Friends 4 Humanity is launching Operation Final Countdown to attempt to prevent a human catastrophe of epic proportions that will paralyze the most vulnerable members of the European Minority.

It is imperative that we create a safety net to ensure the protection of the 96,000 orphans, undetermined amount of elderly, children in safe houses and approximately a million displaced people that will be affected by the new legislation when companies implement measures to ensure their BEE status.

Companies will redirect their funding to charities that comply, to comply; charities will have to immediately abandon the European Minority Beneficiaries. The ANC government ensured that these abandoned and vulnerable persons are left without recourse by limiting the timeframe between announcement and implementation to three weeks. It is anticipated that they will implement this legislation in the same manner as they have done with similar human rights abusive legislation, ignore opposition and force compliance.

We trust in the integrity of people’s convictions to oppose these racist policies and we established a task team in South Africa to immediately contact charities who refuse to abandon their European beneficiaries to arrange for alternative funding and determine which of these charities will be able to accommodate people left destitute.

It is envisaged that the majority of the abandoned orphans and children from places of safety will end up in displaced camps or on the street. As previously reported, these children are favored by Nigerian and police child prostitution syndicates who use the lack of human trafficking legislation in South Africa to manage their despicable operations. 

Once on the streets, we have 48 hours to find them before they are kidnapped and subjected to the 21 day cycle of abuse, gang raped and force-fed drugs. After this, these children are scarred for life and few are able to recover. We hope to arrange with charities that choose to comply with the new legislation not to abandon the children but transfer them to charities or facilities that will accommodate them.

It is expected that some families will ensure the care of their elderly but it has to be realized that many family members of the elderly are already marginalised  homeless or displaced, hence their stay in charity based old age homes, which translates into many of the elderly also ending up in over extended displaced camps with little or no hygienic facilities or food sources. As with the case of the orphans, we will attempt find alternative funding for charities and to relocate the elderly to these facilities.

The estimated million displaced people face the loss of the one meal a day or every second day, that is currently provided to them by benefactors, which are mainly soup kitchens sponsored by retail food chains. The benefactor companies will have no choice but to withdraw donations from these soup kitchens as it will impact their operations if their BEE status is affected. 

The ANC government effectively reaches their genocidal goal by starving the displaced Europeans and orchestrating conditions to ensure their demise.

Ironically, this legislation was announced soon after the visit by Hillary Clinton to South Africa to strengthen economic ties. A new initiative by USAid was also announced that will make $150-million available to small and medium businesses in South Africa, notwithstanding that this will exclude, through legislation any members of the European Minority. Mrs Clinton also hailed the ANC for their contribution to human rights in South Africa, despite clear evidence of the contrary.

Another irony is the honor bestowed on President Zuma, who received honorary citizenship of Texas and the freedom of the City of Houston in 2011. Whether this is done out of ignorance or political manipulation, only Americans can enforce adequate pressure on their government to not only stop enabling the ANC but to intervene.

How can you help?

It is envisaged that the ANC government will strongly oppose any remedial assistance to these destitute children, elderly and displaced. The only way we can ensure their safety and security and that of the volunteers and charities that wish to participate in the intervention, will be an extremely visible and public awareness campaign. This can only be achieved with your help, please help us to help this vulnerable section of the European minority. If you are unable to help, please tell someone that can.

Your donations will ensure the funding for charities that refuse to comply and will be crucial to establish immediate food relief as well as long term solutions for the approximately million displaced people.

The Stanton Commission of Inquiry, through Genocide Watch, will investigate and determine who exactly is behind the Genocide of the European Minority. Your public support and donations to the Commission and Secretariat will ensure intervention, to not only end these atrocities, but launch long term solutions and secure International legal action against the perpetrators.

We established the Genocide Intervention Fund and trust you will support it – thefriends4humanity@gmail.com

Article from 1994 - "Silk Tie Revolutionaries"

(Excerpts from The New American)

Monday, 30 May 1994

Silk Tie Revolutionaries

Written by  William F. Jasper

Conservatives have long railed at the communist/liberal-left axis that has formed the most visible base of the worldwide attack on South Africa: the Soviet Union, Cuba, Libya, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe; the United Nations, the World Council of Churches, the NAACP, the Congressional Black Caucus, Jesse Jackson, Andrew Young, and the whole network of professional civil rights/human rights radicals that grew out of the 1960s antiwar movement; and, of course, the literati and glitterati of the national press, academe, and Hollywood. 

These formidable elements, marching under the camouflage of the anti-apartheid banner, have comprised a force that has done much to bring South Africa to its knees. But all of the AK-47s, mortars, bombs, Soviet advisors, terrorist training camps, assassinations, demonstrations, and biased broadcasts of these revolutionists combined could not, of themselves, have brought about the transformation in South Africa of a vicious terrorist group and its titular head from the status of political outlaws to that of global cult heroes and de facto heads of state. No, these subversive elements merely provided the "pressure from below," an essential ingredient, but not sufficient of itself without "pressure from above" to produce the revolutionary transformation.

CFR Workings 

In the case of South Africa, this "pressure from above" came from the same cabal that has betrayed and overthrown so many of our anti-communist allies since World War II — China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Iran, and Rhodesia, to name a few. The leading cabalists in this ongoing betrayal come from the highest echelons of the international banking and corporate elite of Europe and America and their political front groups. 

Foremost among these fronts have been the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in the United States, and its "sister bodies," the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in Great Britain, the Institute Francais des Relations Internationales in France, the Forschungsinstitut der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Auswartige Politik in Germany, and the South Africa Institute for International Affairs (SAIIA) in South Africa.

In the United States, the CFR elitists have virtually run the federal executive branch since World War II, controlling the White House and especially using the Departments of State, Treasury, and Defense to advance their globalist "new world order" designs.

International Pincer Attack

For decades the CFR's agenda on South Africa has been outlined in its journal, Foreign Affairs, and has been put into effect by such CFR operatives as Henry Kissinger, Cyrus Vance, George Shultz, and Warren Christopher. These agents, along with their colleagues in the media and their counterparts in Europe, were able to orchestrate an incredible international pincer attack, combining political blackmail, economic extortion, and public opinion pressure to paint South Africa as the most execrable nation on earth. 

Their high-level pressure helped force the South African government to make one deadly concession after another to the communist enemies of all Africans, whether black, white, Indian, or colored. At the same time, communist, Marxist, and other "Third World" regimes were (and still are) slaughtering their peoples by the hundreds of thousands and oppressing millions in the most unspeakable manner, with little international public outcry, diplomatic repercussions, or economic sanctions whatsoever.

Examples of the CFR conspiratorial duplicity against South Africa are too legion to enumerate here at any length. Following are but a few:

 • In 1959, the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC), a violent offshoot of the ANC, was organized in the Johannesburg offices of the United States Information Service (USIS) under Secretary of State John Foster Dulles (a CFR founder) and his successor at State, Christian Herter (CFR).

 • In 1965, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, under the direction of its president, Joseph E. Johnson (CFR), brought forth a detailed plan advocating a military invasion of South Africa by the United Nations. The Carnegie Endowment, a vital adjunct of the CFR, has continued its anti-South Africa attacks non-stop. In the Winter 1986-87 issue of the Carnegie Endowment journal Foreign Policy, William Minter militantly charged that "there is no alternate way, short of Western military action, to induce the apartheid regime to negotiate its surrender."

 • The giant Ford and Rockefeller Foundations, always run by CFR members, have unstintingly lavished enormous sums on left-wing South African groups for decades.

 • Vice President Walter Mondale (CFR) stated in May 1977 that President Carter (CFR) would give high priority to "smashing" South Africa's apartheid. The Carter regime soon validated that statement. On October 27, 1977, President Carter ordered an immediate arms embargo on South Africa because of its "blatant deprivation of basic human rights." At the same time, Carter was pursuing normalization of relations with Red China and expanded relations with the Soviet Union, both sterling champions of "basic human Rights."

 • In 1978 the South African Foreign Ministry released a report showing that, in the previous three years, Western governments had provided about 69 million rand (at that time about $79 million) to the SWAPO (South West Africa People's Organization) terrorists alone. The U.S. government's contribution had been around $3.9 million.

 • A 1984 article in Foreign Affairs by Thomas G. Karis (CFR) signaled the Establishment's open support for South African communists and terrorists. Praising the thoroughly communist-dominated ANC and United Democratic Front, Karis glowed at the prospect of a South Africa governed "by individuals like ... Desmond Tutu, Oliver Tambo, and Nelson Mandela."

 • On September 8, 1985, President Reagan signed Executive Order 12532, which declared: "I, Ronald Reagan, President of the United States, find that the policies and actions of the Government of South Africa constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the foreign policy and economy of the United States and hereby declare a national emergency to deal with the threat." 

Thus, South Africa was officially deemed to be a greater "threat" than the Soviet Union or China.

 • In 1986 a comprehensive study by Rand Afrikaans University's Institute for American Studies provided details concerning the funneling of hundreds of millions of U.S. tax dollars by the Reagan State Department into the coffers of radical, pro-Soviet, pro-ANC groups in South Africa. Some $200 to $300 million were channeled through the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Information Agency, the National Endowment for Democracy, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and other agencies.

 • Also in 1986, Assistant Secretary of State Chester Crocker (CFR) described the ANC as "freedom fighters," marking an official about-face from State's previous designation of the ANC as a terrorist group. Crocker, author of the Reagan Administration's disastrous South Africa policy of "constructive engagement," first outlined the CFR game plan in a 1980 article for Foreign Affairsentitled "South Africa: Strategy for Change."

 • Due to U.S. bludgeoning, South Africa signed the Nkomati Accords, the Lusaka Accords, and the Namibia Accords, all of which involved the abandonment and betrayal of South Africa's most important military allies: Savimbi's UNITA guerillas in Angola, the RENAMO forces in Mozambique, and the South West Africa Territorial Forces in Namibia.

 • On January 28, 1987, Secretary of State George Shultz (CFR), in a high-profile event, met in Washington, DC with the ANC's top terrorist, Oliver Tambo. That night, Tambo declared to Ted Koppel (CFR) on ABC's Nightline that he and Shultz had come to a "meeting of minds" and shared a common goal for South Africa.

 • On February 5, 1987, M. Peter McPherson (CFR), director of the U.S. Agency for International Development, announced a Reagan Administration pledge of $93 million in new aid to Botswana, Angola, Mozambique, Tanzania, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe.
These Marxist "front line" states were involved in deadly guerilla warfare against South Africa and provided sites for Soviet-backed terrorist training camps.

 • The Clinton State Department admitted last August that it was assigning U.S. personnel to train bodyguards for Mandela and other ANC officials. It had no comparable program for Zulu Chief Buthelezi or other South African leaders who are far more vulnerable than ANC leaders to assassination attempts.

 • On July 5, 1993, David Rockefeller hosted a dinner for top corporate executives to honor Nelson Mandela and raise funds for the ANC election drive. ANC Foreign Secretary Thabo Mbeki praised Rockefeller as a longtime friend who has "backed the ANC financially for more than a decade."

 • Barely two weeks prior to the South African elections, an international coterie of "mediators" led by Henry Kissinger (CFR) descended on Johannesburg to undermine the demands of Zulu Chief Buthelezi and to confer the Insiders' benediction on Mandela and the ANC.

Rhodes' Legacy

Certainly some of the most strategic "pressure from above" has come from inside South Africa itself, which is hardly surprising considering that many of the Insider groups we have been discussing can trace their genesis to that South African Insider of fabled wealth and power, Cecil John Rhodes. With Rothschild and J.P. Morgan money, Rhodes became the worldwide king of diamonds and gold in the latter half of the 19th century. But years earlier, while a student at Oxford, he had become a disciple of Professor John Ruskin, a revolutionary utopian socialist. (Ruskin wrote in his own newsletter, "For, indeed, I am myself a communist of the old school — reddest also of the red.") According to Rhodes biographer Sara G. Millin, "The government of the world was Rhodes' simple desire." Rhodes established a secret society called the Round Table and used his vast fortune to promote his Ruskinite plans for socialist world government. His Round Table progeny include the CFR and its corresponding sister bodies now operating in most of the major powers of Europe and Asia.

Rhodes' mantle was transferred in the early 1900s first to Ernest Oppenheimer, and then to his son, Harry F. Oppenheimer, who holds the reins to one of the largest and most powerful financial and industrial empires the world has ever seen. The Oppenheimer kingdom includes the vast resources of the enormous Anglo American Corporation, the de Beers diamond cartel, the Minorco conglomerate, Highveld Steel, and hundreds of diversified companies encircling the globe.

Like fellow Insiders David Rockefeller and the late Armand Hammer, Oppenheimer has always been cozy with the communists. For 40 years his Anglo American Corporation has held strategic gold and diamond sales agreements with the Soviet Union. Oppenheimer has been a longtime supporter of the ANC and was an early and powerful voice calling for the release of Nelson Mandela.

In 1985 Oppenheimer sent Anglo American chairman Gavin Reilly and other business leaders to Zambia for a meeting with Oliver Tambo and other senior ANC officials. This provided an enormous boost to the ANC's prestige and credibility. Oppenheimer's controlling interest in Argus Newspapers, South Africa's largest newspaper group, has enabled him to shower the ANC/SACP with an incredible propaganda windfall.

His Oppenheimer Fund annually pours millions of dollars into radical causes. According to South African journalist Aida Parker, Oppenheimer's conduits have poured 320 to 350 million rand into the ANC since 1985 and have given the PAC more than 50,000 rand in the weeks leading up to the election.

Naturally, Oppenheimer is a key player in Rockefeller's global CFR network. For many years he has been a leading figure in the South African Institute for International Affairs. Like his American and European counterparts, he has used his position, power, and pelf to betray his country and advance the diabolical designs of the new world order. The Oppenheimer influence, together with strategic pressure from the U.S. Europe Rhodes network, explains many of the suicidal and otherwise inexplicable policies and actions of the National Party (NP) under F.W. de Klerk.

"Conservative" Sellout

Like leaders of the Republican Party in the United States, the de Klerk coterie in Pretoria knows how to strike a conservative posture while actually selling out all South Africans to the ANC/SACP reds. A few examples serve to illustrate a long chain of perfidy:

 • On September 26, 1992 de Klerk and Mandela agreed to outlawing Inkatha members from carrying their traditional weapons — spears and knobby sticks — but did not require ANC armed units to refrain from carrying their traditional weapons — AK-47s, grenades, and other high-powered weapons.

 • In November 1993, de Klerk's National Party and the ANC agreed to the merger of the ANC's military arm, the terrorist Umkhontowe Sizwe (MK), with the South African Defense Force (SADF) into a new National Peacekeeping Force (NPKF). The results have been frightening. As Ray Kennedy reported in The European for April 22-28, the ANC's members at the NPKF training camp near Bloemfontein "distinguished themselves with nights of drunken rampaging when they hurled abuse and threats at white instructors from the South African army and broke out of the barracks. And in its attempt to quell a firefight between ANC supporters and Zulu hostel-dwellers this week, wild shooting ensued, in the course of which a press photographer was killed."

 • The NP/ANC Goldstone Commission was a predictably one-sided affair. Judge Goldstone was the only judge acceptable to the ANC — because of his pro-ANC leanings. Goldstone demonstrated his ANC bias earlier this year when he issued a report to the ANC before issuing it to the government. The Commission's charges that the SADF was arming Inkatha death squads was reported as 'fact' around the world.

 • The Independent Election Commission (IEC) set up by the NP/ANC negotiators and headed by Judge Johann Kriegler was a farce, as expected. Kriegler, a founder of the left-wing Lawyers for Human Rights, is pro-ANC and the entire IEC became a full-employment program for ANC cadres.

 • The blatantly pro-ANC/SACP constitution was constructed by the ANC's Secretary General Cyril Ramaphosa and the NP's Constitutional Development Minister Roelf Meyer — with the help of Harvard's Roger Fisher (CFR) and other Insider internationalists. It amounted to an abject surrender of the government by the NP to the ANC. But it was presented to South Africans by de Klerk and company as a great negotiation "victory."

 As always, it is the revolutionaries in silk ties at the top who are the most dangerous.