The Decline of South African Society

Excerpts from:

Ronald Dworkin, A Matter of Principle, 1985.

As society becomes poorer, because production falls and wealth decays, it loses a variety of features we cherish. It's culture fails, its order declines, its system of criminal and civil justice becomes less accurate and less fair; in these and other ways society steadily recedes from our conception of a good society. 

The decline cannot be arrested by further taxation to support these public goods, for that will only shrink production further and accelerate the decline. According to this argument, those who lose by programs designed to halt inflation and reinvigorate the economy are called upon to make a sacrifice, not just in order to benefit others privately, but out of a sense of loyalty to the public institutions of their own society.

...suppose that if we are zealous for equality now, we will so depress the wealth of the community that future [generations] will be even less well off than the very poor are now. 

People must not be condemned...to lives in which they are effectively denied any active part in the political, economic and cultural life of the community.

If our government can provide an attractive future only through present injustice – only by forcing some citizens to sacrifice in the name of a community from which they are in every sense excluded – then the rest of us should disown that future, however attractive, because we should not regard it as our future either.

Dworkin, D. (1985) 'A Matter of Principle'.

Bloomberg: South Africa Can't Rise Under Zuma's Cloud

AFRICA

South Africa Can't Rise Under Zuma's Cloud

APRIL 11, 2016 1:00 AM EST

By

Editorial Board

Unlike the 25 percent of his fellow citizens who are without one, South African President Jacob Zuma doesn’t have to worry about finding a new job -- for now, at least. But South Africa will not prosper until it roots out the corruption and impunity that mark both his administration and the party that he represents.

The ruling African National Congress blocked an effort last Tuesday to impeach Zuma after the country’s highest court found he had violated South Africa’s constitution. Zuma has presided over not only a series of political and legal scandals, but also a precipitous decline in South Africa’s economic fortunes.

The country’s economy will grow this year by less than 1 percent, which lags the rate of population growth. Inflation has hit a seven-year high. Government debt has almost doubled since Zuma took office in 2009, rising to more than 50 percent of gross domestic product for the first time in more than two decades. South Africa's credit rating hovers near junk status.

There is a difference between economic misfortune and mismanagement. Zuma can’t be blamed, for instance, for the fall in commodity prices that has staggered South Africa’s mining industry.

He is very much responsible, however, for formulating and carrying out a plan to put the economy on sounder footing. Instead, Zuma’s most prominent move has been last December’s firing of his well-regarded finance minister. And Zuma’s ability to govern has been seriously undermined by personal and political scandal.

Zuma billed taxpayers for construction of a swimming pool, amphitheater, and cattle and chicken enclosures at his private home. He has used his position to place friends and family in corporate sinecures. He has flouted high court rulings and used security forces to intimidate his opposition.

Such behavior at the top has reinforced perceptions that the ANC has become a vehicle for personal enrichment rather than national development. Over the last year, anger about the corruption and lackluster economy has stoked attacks on immigrants, violent strikes and the largest protests by South African students since the apartheid era.

If Zuma and his party want to win back the confidence of the citizenry and credibility among nations, they have no time to lose. They should move ahead with a bill to promote financial transparency, especially on corporate ownership. A wholesale reorganization of the country’s anti-corruption police units is in order, as is a strengthening of the government’s ability to curb wasteful spending and punish official misconduct. One test will come this October, with the appointment of a new public protector -- the official who called Zuma to account for his abuse of taxpayer money.

Many South African voters are rightly outraged by Zuma’s transgressions and the ANC leadership’s apparent tolerance for them. Unless he acts quickly, they will surely express their disapproval in this August’s municipal elections.

The Ecomomist: ANC is "clueless and immoral"

  The Economist

Clueless and Immoral

A country that symbolises human rights and freedom is turning its back on both

Sep 5th 2015

TO UNDERSTAND how far South Africa has strayed from Nelson Mandela’s legacy, one need only peruse the latest foreign-policy paper drafted by grandees of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). The fall of the Berlin Wall, it reads, marked not the freeing of captive nations in Europe but a regrettable triumph of Western imperialism. The pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in China were an American-backed counter-revolution. Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine is a conflict “directed from Washington”. America’s policies in Africa and the Middle East have “the sole intention” of toppling democratic governments. As “part of the international revolutionary movement to liberate humanity from the bondage of imperialism”, South Africa should seek to have American military bases thrown out of Africa.

If this were a spoof, it might be amusing. Yet the document is entirely serious: its contents are to be debated at the ANC’s policy conference in October. Its authors include several serving and retired cabinet ministers, including a former foreign minister. South Africa risks becoming a laughing-stock, not least in Africa itself.

When Mandela became South Africa’s first post-apartheid president, he led the country out of isolation. He promised a foreign policy in which “human rights will be the light that guides”. Granted, he and his successor, Thabo Mbeki, applied the principle inconsistently. South Africa called for sanctions against Sani Abacha, Nigeria’s brutal dictator, and was a vocal advocate of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Yet it also coddled dictators such as Muammar Qaddafi, whom Mandela called “my brother leader”, propped up Robert Mugabe even as he led Zimbabwe to ruin, and sided with Russia and China in opposing sanctions on Myanmar.

Dalai Lama, no. Bloodstained despot, yes

Under Jacob Zuma, the current president, the country’s foreign policy has drifted even further from its previous ideals. When the Dalai Lama was invited to attend a meeting of Nobel peace laureates in South Africa, the government refused him a visa. Yet it welcomed Omar al-Bashir, the president of Sudan, despite his indictment by the ICC for orchestrating genocide and mass rape in Darfur. And rather than let a fellow African leader face such impertinent charges, Mr Zuma’s officials whisked him away just before a South African court ordered his arrest.

All countries struggle to balance principles and national interests. Yet South Africa’s revolutionary foreign policy serves neither. On principles: South Africans may be grateful for the Soviet Union’s opposition to apartheid, but they are also proud of their constitutionally guaranteed human rights. Few buy the ANC’s argument that Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a victim and Barack Obama its cruel oppressor.

What about self-interest? The ANC wants to draw closer to the BRICS, a club that also includes Brazil, Russia, India and China and seeks to create an alternative world economic force. Fair enough; trade with China, especially, is important. Yet Europe is still South Africa’s biggest trading partner, and America, which gives South African textiles and manufactured goods preferential access to its markets, comes third. The ANC seems to think that commerce with China will flourish only if South Africa is hostile to the West. This is nonsense: many countries trade profitably with China while staying close to America.

The ANC thinks South Africa should stand up for Africa. But Europe and America are not Africa’s enemies. Quite the opposite. A single American aid programme, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, has saved millions of African lives. None of the BRICs can make similar claims. Nor did they step up—as Western countries did with soldiers, equipment and intelligence—when jihadist militias almost overran Mali or the north of Nigeria.

South Africa’s peaceful transition to democracy offered hope to a continent long tormented by despots and ideologues. If the ANC now rejects South Africa’s liberal friends and throws in its lot with some of the world’s nastier regimes, it will be doing Africans a grave disservice.

South African Rand - Trends and Forecasts

According to Rand forecasts on the Trading Economics website, the Rand should strengthen to R10 to the dollar in 2020 and R8.51 in 2030.

Conversely, economist Cees Bruggemans predicts R22.50 by 2018.

R22.50 to the dollar by 2018?

The Trading Economics website forecasts are based on the following:

South African Rand Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of South African Rand using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations.


However, looking at the 1 year, 5 year and 10 year history of the Rand shows a near 45 degree angle whereby the rand has gradually deteriorated.

Since 2010; the Rand has lost almost 100% of its value against the US Dollar and UK Pound Sterling. This means that the Rand has lost approximately half its value in 5 years.

Furthermore, the accelerated devaluation of the Rand began during the prolonged trade-union strikes in the mining sector, and subsequent Lonmin Marikana Massacre. This has been exacerbated by an electricity shortage, continued uncertainty of industrial action and proposals for harsher regulations and bigger percentages to be allocated to BEE partners and share-holders.

The above factors are also coinciding with a rising budget deficit. The main risks of a rising deficit is that it increases the chances of a lowering of SA's sovereign credit-rating.

Standard & Poor's credit rating for SA is currently at BBB-.

This is one notch above "junk status" and "non-investment grade".

The budget deficit does not show any near-term probabilities of shrinking; due to rising unemployment, rising population, low tax base of less than 5 million, public sector pay increases, social grants increases and low GDP growth. Five million people are therefore supporting the entire population of approximately 55 million. In the long-term, this is not sustainable if one considers that with low GDP growth of under 2% and rising population and unemployment numbers; the tax base is not growing at a rate which can keep up.

Furthermore, the potential of a $1 Trillion nuclear power-station deal with Russia is increasingly becoming a reality. Such a deal would considerably increase SA's deficit, which in turn could increase the likelihood of a credit downgrade.

On the political side, the influence of the SACP within the ANC and its appointment of members to key positions has increased. The rise of the EFF has arguably also increased their perceived 'need' for anti-white rhetoric as well as the intensification of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and 'economic transformation' in order to prevent losing more black voters. Sentiments such as these do not inspire investor confidence and only fuel uncertainty in regards to the economic future of SA.

The Rand is already one of the most volatile currencies in the world, ranging from top 5 to the most volatile. Furthermore, the currency is susceptible to "speculative attacks" via major banks as occurred in 2001; when the currency reached its previous record lows. Political uncertainty, increasingly anti-white and foreign business legislation, electricity shortages and trade-union threats do not help provide stability to an already volatile currency, nor do they contribute positively to overall economic growth.

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ANC Funding Western Cape Farm Strikes

 (Excerpts from Politicsweb)

ANC gives R4,1 million to Black Association of Wine and Spirits Industry (BAWSI) ahead of Western Cape Farm Strikes 

Statement issued by Annette Steyn MP, DA Shadow Minister of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries, April 24 2013

In a parliamentary reply to my question, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Tina Joemat-Pettersson, has revealed that her department paid R4.1 million to the Black Association of Wine and Spirits Industry (BAWSI).

BAWSI -the farmworker union -had been at the forefront of the violent unrest in the farming regions of the Western Cape.  

In fact, Nosey Pieterse - the union's secretary -had even thanked Minister Joemat-Pettersson for the funding on his blog. 

It is clear from the reply that this funding was given to BAWSI on 8 October 2012, just before the farm strikes began across the province.

This amount of money, coupled with the timing of the transfer, brings into question whether the Department of Agriculture helped fund the farm strikes in the Western Cape.

In the interests of upholding the rule of law and the Constitution, this must be investigated as soon as possible.

UK Terminates Financial Aid to South Africa

(Article from allAfrica.com)

Issued by: Department of International Relations and Cooperation

The South African government has noted with regret the unilateral announcement by the government of the United Kingdom regarding the termination of the Official Development Aid to South Africa as from the year 2015.

This is such a major decision with far reaching implications on the projects that are currently running and it is tantamount to redefining our relationship.

Ordinarily, the UK government should have informed the government of South Africa through official diplomatic channels of their intentions and allowed for proper consultations to take place, and the modalities of the announcement agreed on.

We have a SA/UK Bilateral Forum which is scheduled for some time this year and the review of the SA/UK strategy which includes the ODA, would take place there and decisions about how to move forward were expected to be discussed in that forum.

This unilateral announcement no doubt will affect how our bilateral relations going forward will be conducted.

We are however looking forward to the SA/UK bilateral forum later this year to clear up this matter among others.

FW de Klerk warns against ANC plans for "second transition"

(Article from Politicsweb)

Former President says ruling party wrong to contemplate a break with 1994 consensus

THE ANC PLANS TO END SOUTH AFRICA'S HISTORIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONSENSUS

Eighteen years ago we South Africans reached agreement on the kind of country we wanted to become.   After three years of difficult negotiations we agreed that we wanted a society in which the Constitution - and not the majority of the day - would be sovereign.  

We agreed that that Constitution should make full provision for the protection of all our fundamental rights; that we would have free and independent courts; and that we would establish a truly democratic system of government subject to the rule of law. 

We all agreed on the need for transformation - on the rapid development of our people toward equality, human dignity and the full enjoyment of rights.  We also agreed on the need to protect our languages and cultures and to ensure that no-one could be arbitrarily deprived of their property.

Parties representing some 90% of our people - and substantial majorities of all our communities - endorsed the constitutional accord.  We reached agreement despite our deeply divided and traumatic history.  We succeeded despite all the crises, the walk-outs, the violence and the reality that we all had to make painful concessions. 

Our achievement was rightly regarded by the whole world as one of the crowning glories of the latter part of the 20th century. It was seen everywhere as an example to all divided societies of what could be achieved by rational debate, compromise and goodwill.  I believe that whatever party we belonged to, it was our finest hour.

It was on this basis that the National Party under my leadership surrendered sovereign power - not to another political party - but to the constitution.

Earlier this week, in discussion papers for its upcoming policy conference, the ANC announced that it wants to sweep all this away.  It believes that the balance of power nationally and globally has shifted sufficiently for it to dispense with the compromises that it had made in 1993 and 1996.

According to Jeff Radebe, the ANC's Policy Chief, "our first transition embodied a framework and a national consensus that may have been appropriate for political emancipation, a political transition, but has proven inadequate and inappropriate for our social and economic transformation phase."

Radebe also announced that the ANC plans to dispense with some of the cornerstones on which our new society has been established, including the present role and powers of the provinces.  In line with the controversial Green Paper on Land Reform property rights would also be at risk.   Other cornerstones of the constitutional accord that are already under threat include language rights,  the right to education in the language of one's choice; the freedom of expression and the right to access information.  Most seriously, the government is maneuvering to limit the role of the courts.

None of this should come as a surprise, since the ANC is simply implementing the next steps in its long-announced National Democratic Revolution.

The National Party did not agree to the transition naively or with its eyes closed to the ideological nature of the tripartite alliance.  It realised full well that the ANC might one day reconsider its solemn undertakings. However, it believed that in addition to the guarantees that we had negotiated into the constitution there were other powerful forces that would help to ensure that all parties would honour our accord:

• the collapse of the Soviet Union had swept the ideological ground from under the feet of communists all over the world;
• a new global consensus had developed on the fundamentals of democratic governance and responsible fiscal and economic policy.  In our globalising world, no government could afford to ignore these new international norms;
• we also hoped that as the ANC became used to the complexities of government it would quietly abandon its outmoded ideologies;
• finally, we realised that just as we could not govern the country against the will of the majority, a majority government would not be able to rule effectively if it violated the fundamental rights  of our minorities.  Our symbiotic relationship dictated that whether we liked it or not we would have to work together to achieve success.

We would have been foolish not to seize this unique opportunity for a just and honorable settlement.

The subsequent eighteen years have proved that this was the right decision. As the ANC points out, South Africa has made substantial progress in so many areas.  Our country is respected in Africa and throughout the world as an inspiring example of non-racial democracy.  With all its faults it is a far better and a far more just country than it was in the past. 

We have indeed not made nearly enough progress in addressing unacceptable levels of inequality, poverty and unemployment.  However, these transformation failures cannot be ascribed to our constitution.  They are primarily the consequence of inappropriate policies. 

Evidently, the ANC now wants to jeopardise all of this.  It imagines that it can write off the influence of free market democracies and align itself instead with China, Russia and its friends in Cuba.

It thinks that it can invent a new approach to economic development that will free it from the need for the fiscal responsibility that it practised with such good effect for the first seventeen years of its rule.

It thinks, most dangerously, that it can treat minorities as it pleases and impose new forms of discrimination against them in line with its ideology of the National Democratic Revolution.

It is wrong.

Any move to abandon the solemn national consensus that we reached during the constitutional negotiations would destroy irreparably the brave foundations for national unity, democracy and transformation that we have developed since 1994. It would slash open once again the divisions of the past and divide the country along racial lines. Once the powers of independent courts have been sufficiently diluted - it would end the prospect of a society based on democratic values and fundamental human rights.

There are many other matters in the discussion papers that are problematic, but I have dealt here only with some of the key issues.  As Mr Radebe points out, the discussion papers are intended to be the basis for a vigorous national debate.  He invites "all sectors of South African Society and our people at large to engage with these discussion documents" because they "will have a profound bearing on the future development of this nation."   

In this spirit, I would like to renew my request to the government to hold genuine discussions on these issues with those elements of our society - from all our communities - who continue to support the constitutional consensus that the ANC now wishes to discard.

FW de Klerk

What does a 25% probability for a failed state really mean?

(Article from News24)

Clem Sunter

Since writing the column two weeks ago raising the probability of South Africa becoming a Failed State to 25%, many people have asked me what it means and what they should do about it.

Should I make sure my passport is up to date? Should I be going on an LSD (look, see, decide) trip to Australia? Should I be approaching a head hunter for job options in Europe? Should I legitimately be sending more money offshore to mitigate the declining rand? 

Should I be stocking food?

Connecting the dots

These are all valid questions which have been posed to me. Chantell Ilbury and I have always said that part of thinking like a fox is to connect the dots. You cannot just play scenarios – that’s daydreaming. You have to consider your options for each scenario and then decide what you are going to do about it depending on the probability and impact of the scenario. You can either do something now or prepare a contingency plan just in case. Either way, the whole point of the process is to improve the speed and quality of your response in chasing the opportunities and countering the threats offered by the scenarios.

So, let’s get back to the significance of a 25% probability. Pictorially, it covers an “L” or 90 degrees of a circular disc. If you spin the disc, there is a 25% probability that the needle will end up on that 90 degree segment. What is more is that if you spin it again whatever the previous result, the probability is still 25%. Like spinning a coin where you get ten heads in a row, the chances are still 50:50 that the next one will be a head. The difference between these examples and real life is that real life only happens once and therefore probabilities are far more subjective.

Recently, I had a discussion with a group from MIT in the US who tried to convince me that you can mathematically link the raising of the flags on our scenarios to their probabilities. I am not so sure because of the one time aspect of life; and so much of what happens is due to the animal spirits or irrational nature of mankind.

The bottom line is that the 25% probability on a Failed State is instinctive and should be treated as such. In other words, there is nothing scientific about it and if you have a different figure in  mind, you are quite entitled to base your actions on your figure not ours. Suffice it to say, in our mind, the Failed State scenario is no longer a wild card possibility lurking in the shadows: it is now a genuine threat, the consequences of which have to be thought through.

Impact of the scenario on you

This brings us to the second aspect that has to be considered which is the impact of the scenario on you as a business, you as a family or you as a person. If I said to you that the plane you had booked a flight on had a 25% probability of crashing, you almost certainly would not take it unless you were in a war zone and wanted to escape. The reason is a high likelihood of death in the event that the scenario materialises. Equally, if I gave you a 25% probability of being eaten by a shark when swimming off a particular beach, it would be very foolhardy of you to go in the water. One of the reasons you would not take the risk in either case is that the alternative options are usually easy to exercise: use another airline and go to another beach or swimming pool.

The impact of a Failed State scenario is far more difficult to imagine since so many varieties of a failed state exist, ranging from oppressive dictatorships through perpetual anarchy to civil war and at the extreme end genocide. No expert in the field here has adequately described the different forms that a failed state in South Africa could take. We certainly can’t, particularly as regards timing and rate of descent. 

The only thing we can state with confidence is that the rest of the world will collectively turn its back on us, apart from a few outcasts who will welcome us to the club of pariah nations.

Two categories of options

Hence, the evaluation of the overall risk of this worst case scenario i.e. probability times impact is a highly personal thing. And so too is the selection of options available which depends on individual circumstances such as age, level of wealth and education, business experience and skills, as well as the number of children and other family commitments you have in South Africa. In the case of a business, the opportunity to expand the geographical footprint outside South Africa will be linked to its range of products and services, health of its balance sheet and potential partners elsewhere.

However, options can be divided broadly into two categories: adapting your own strategies and tactics as regards your own future in light of the changing odds of the scenario; or rolling up your sleeves and taking action – however big or small it may be – to reduce the odds of the scenario itself. In other words, you become an active citizen in ensuring that South Africa does not fail.

Far be it from Chantell and myself to give you specific advice on which option you should take. 
What our 25% probability means is that you should give the matter some serious thought if you have not done so already. Then decide on appropriate action or have a contingency plan. That is what a fox would do – logically not fearfully, with a sense of purpose not despair.

Russian Economist Fears 'Failed State' in SA

(Article from Business Day Live)

Russian economist fears ‘failed state’ in SA

South Africa IS in danger of "tipping over" and becoming a failed state, according to Yuri Maltsev, a Soviet defector and economic adviser to former Russian president Mikhail Gorbachev.

Dr Maltsev said on Wednesday that South Africa was at a crossroads and there were dangerous signs of instability, such as the farm protests in the Western Cape, which some see as part of a political attempt to undermine the opposition Democratic Alliance.

"The African National Congress (ANC) is a monopoly, and power corrupts," Dr Maltsev said in an interview with Business Day. He was speaking at a forum organised by the Free Market Foundation.

"What worries me is this can be the point of no return … South Africa is at a crossroads and can tip over."

Dr Maltsev was referring to spreading social unrest, mounting corruption and plans by the governing ANC for more intervention of the state in the economy to alleviate poverty and create jobs.

If South Africa could choose the freedom of an open economy with less regulation, lower taxes and more flexible labour laws, it could "explode with economic growth and energy", Dr Maltsev said.

Nomura emerging markets analyst Peter Attard Montalto said labelling South Africa a "failed state" was to look at the issues of the economy in the wrong way.

"The whole point is that there hasn’t been enough of a dramatic shock to the system yet to push the government, ANC and associated interests into meaningfully doing something about the economy’s problems and providing the leadership required," he said.

"Hence we deal with ongoing underperformance without any ‘blow-up’ situation. Even the situation in the mining labour market does not seem to have been enough."

There are concerns that plans by Anglo American Platinum to cut as many as 14,000 jobs after mothballing four mining shafts will lead to a repeat of the wildcat strikes that hit the sector last year, leading to the loss of almost 50 lives.

Dr Maltsev said the election of business tycoon Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC deputy president was probably a good thing, although he did not approve of the way Mr Ramaphosa had acquired his wealth. Turning to broader issues, he said he was not worried by the growing Chinese presence in Africa as China seemed to be avoiding political influence. Africans could not afford to "pick and choose" who is investing in their economies, he said.

Dr Maltsev praised the formation of the Brics bloc, which groups Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. "It’s a good idea because all the countries are on the same level of economic development," he said.

Before defecting to the US in 1989, Dr Maltsev was a member of a senior Soviet economics team that worked on Mr Gorbachev’s reforms package of perestroika.

He is now a professor of economics at Carthage College in the US state of Wisconsin.

Revolt, Torture, Tyranny face an Unreformed SA

(Article from TimesLive)

Revolt, torture, tyranny face an unreformed SA

Inequality is dragging South Africa closer to its "tipping point" and becoming a failed state, says Clem Sunter.

Sunter is probably best known for the high-road/low-road scenarios he posited for South Africa in the mid-1980s and for predicting a "major attack on a Western city" in Mind of a Fox, a book he wrote with Chantell Ilbury in 2001.

A year ago, the former chairman and CEO of Anglo American's gold and uranium division, and until recently chairman of the Anglo American Chairman's Fund, believed that there was a "0%" chance that this country would become a failed state. He has since increased the odds to 25%.

"Once people get seriously upset, it takes only one event to cause the country to erupt," said Sunter, and "Marikana could have been it".

"There is a level of anarchy creeping into protests - both labour and service delivery - that hasn't been seen before, and that we've now seen in Sasolburg and Parys."

Six people were killed during the violent protests by residents opposing their area's incorporation into the Ngwathe municipality.

Zamdela township residents razed property, stoned cars and looted shops.

Police reacted with tear-gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition to disperse crowds.

Sunter believes that increasingly violent protests could become normal.

During the Arab Spring, Sunter talked to analysts researching the motives for the upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa.

"There were three factors that contributed hugely - very high youth unemployment, highly active social networks and growing alienation from the state," he said.

"We have all three."

He believes the consequences of this country not getting its act together economically, socially and politically could be dire.

"After Marikana and Sasolburg, we might be close to an Arab Spring."

Sunter has predicted three scenarios for the future of South Africa.

The first is that it stays in what he terms the "Premier League" and keeps its place as one of the world's top 53 economies. It is currently in 50th spot. Sunter believes we should be in 32nd place because we have the 32nd-biggest economy but the many problems that remain unresolved continue to create uncertainty.

Whereas a year ago Sunter gave the country a 70% chance of staying in this league, he now gives it only a 50% chance.

The second scenario is that South Africa slides peacefully into what he calls the "Second Division". These are countries that Sunter describes as poor but peaceful.

He gives South Africa a 25% chance of becoming one of these nations, with Nigeria taking over as the most influential country in Africa.

The third scenario is that South Africa becomes a failed state, a place of anarchy, warfare, hunger and disorder - like Syria or Afghanistan.

Such a state generally has high unemployment, gross income inequality and appalling human rights abuses, including routine use of torture by the police and security forces.

The country is governed either by a dictator - living in a palace among the ruins of a country in which revolt is kept in check by intimidation - or by a shifting alliance of warlords, each with a private army or militia.

Sunter said there is a 25% chance - a "real threat" - of South Africa becoming such a country.

There are two ingredients that Sunter said we need to stay in the Premier League.

The first is an inclusive leader, such as former president Nelson Mandela.

"I'm afraid [Mandela's] successors [Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma] have not been inclusive leaders, and I hope that Cyril Ramaphosa might be the someone who could bring the nation together.

"I see the move to bring Cyril back as very positive.

"It looks like our leaders are getting the message that something has to be done."

Sunter believes that, if Ramaphosa had followed Mandela into politics in the 1990s, the value of Ramaphosa's leadership might have been lost.

"We didn't know all our weaknesses then," he said.

The other way in which South Africa can improve its chances of being a functioning democracy, he said, is by "using our pockets of excellence such as the good schools".

"We should try to replicate these pockets of excellence.

"The reason we have inequality is that we don't have jobs.

"For each worker in the formal sector there are three people who don't have a job ," he said.

"People don't have jobs because the education system hasn't delivered the skills to create jobs."

Sunter has been calling for an "economic Codesa" for this reason.

"We need a cooperative model [to deal with inequality].

"There is no way the ANC can do it by itself, and business and the unions can't do it by themselves either," he said.

"This is the tipping point."

'The Collapse of Governance in South Africa?'

(Article from Politicsweb)

From Mangaung to Nkandla - a Journey to nowhere!

In the third week of December 2012 Jacob Zuma was re-elected as president of the ANC at the 53rd National Elective Conference at Mangaung (Bloemfontein) in the central Free State.

Nkandla is the personal country homestead of Zuma in rural Kwazulu-Natal.  It has also been called the "presidential compound" or "tribal village". It is an extensive complex housing his extended family, with state of the art electronic surveillance systems, helicopter landing pad, elaborate roads, underground bunkers and security personnel. What brought Nkandla into the limelight are widespread allegations that much of the country homestead has been funded by taxpayers' money.  

Zuma's redeployment by the ANC at Mangaung in December 2012 may guarantee his continued presence at Nkandla as president of the country which could put him in power up to 2019.

This journey from Mangaung to Nkandla explains the interaction between the ANC as liberation movement and the ANC as government in power and the current impact on the country. In particular, it provides a much needed understanding of the complex interaction between party and state in the present political dispensation and exposes the reasons why the current political dispensation has been failing for the past decade or more.

It has to be understood that the country's functional decline is not solely the result of Zuma's deployment in 2007 and neither will his recent redeployment in December 2012 fix the problem. What has gone wrong by 2013 can be traced right back to the political settlement of 1994.

It is part of a self-destructive process that had been embedded very deep in the political system by the political power brokers at the time. The mere appointment of a new president with a new (old) team will not solve the problem; what has been emerging now is broad system failure. It is something entirely different!

At the start of 2013 the country is in deep trouble, however, this concept will have to be explained. Suffice to state as introductory comment is the observation that Zuma's journey from Mangaung to Nkandla is expected to be a journey to nowhere. Over the past year or two, the possibility of a "failed state" has surreptitiously emerged in the media.

The concept of a "failed state" was mentioned, but not really discussed, as if the people involved were politically too scared - or ignorant - in dealing with the implications. The slow emergence of a failed state, and then very often unobserved under the radar scan of parliament, implies a certain fatal decline of a constitutional democracy and the role of political parties. Even mentioning the possibility of a failed state situation is not only serious, but has extremely dangerous implications for any state.

A document like this is not for broad public consumption as it may endanger the established and comfortable mindset of the voting public and threaten the perceived and propagated logical framework of party policy. Politicians prefer a happy voting public, not a disturbed one. This document may challenge the existing, fixed mindset - and that is politically not always welcome! It is a document for the decision maker, who does not have the luxury of deferring difficult situations. It has been written for a reader who thinks and plans for up to 2020 and beyond, for the current political dispensation is unlikely to continue past Zuma's second term in office.

The critical question by 2013 is therefore: if there are convincing facts and arguments that the current political dispensation may decay to the point of systemic collapse - a failed state - in the next five to seven years, what has to be done? This is a question that can be posed to every business executive, every activist group in civil society, and each parent with kids in school or on their way to school. It is also true for expats with family in South Africa and families with children abroad. Will there ever be an opportunity for them to return?

The unthinkable of 1994 will have to be contemplated by 2013. The country may slide into a process of governing collapse. This does not necessarily imply a civil war, but an inevitable decay of governing functions to the point of spontaneous implosion - the key functions of state just cease to exist!  Society just becomes governmentally empty - a stateless society. This was never considered in 1994; however, by 2013 it has to be argued as an alarming reality.

If spontaneous implosion of governing capabilities materialises, what becomes of government? Equally important, what happens to society and population? When society arrives at this point, is there still any meaning in a free and fair election?  If the past has not been a success, what about the future?

Dr Jan du Plessis is editor and publisher of Intersearch. 

This is an edited extract from the Intersearch Management Briefing for January 2013. Dr Du Plessis can be contacted at mb@intersearch.co.za 

Shocking Documentary on Lawlessness in Johannesburg

Louis Theroux, Law and Disorder in Johannesburg 

The beginning to Part 4 of the documentary is especially shocking when a man who is a murderer, car hijacker and house robber is interviewed.

He mentions that his last robbery was in Benoni the night before where he 'took' four cars.

The interviewer asks how he got the cars.

"We take it with a gun, what can we do?"

And to hurt people?

"Ja, the people, I will show you with your last born" and by this he means a child or baby.

"Take him to shower or to hot shower" meaning that he puts the baby under boiling water.

"Or to the oven, microwave oven. I put like this to the oven" and indicates forcefully pushing a baby inside.

"Then you see I want money."

"Take your child, I put in oven and make oven on" he indicates turning the knob.

"Or I take your wife and I put a knife here" and puts a finger across his throat. Then pulls his finger across.

"Like example, then you see the blood."

"They feel f**** all, even to kill somebody" says one of the black security guards who is with the interviewer.

The end of the documentary also provides some interesting answers to the questions of the interviewer.

'Whites excluded from charities'

(Article from Friends4Humanity)

Nelson Mandela’s ANC government announced earlier this year the implementation of the ‘second transition’ policy. The ‘second transition’ is defined as a radical call to finalize “economic freedom”. The ANC regime chose to roll out this second transition with a death blow to the most vulnerable in the European Minority community, the:

• impoverished;
• displaced;
• elderly;
• traumatized; and
• children.

Ironically, they chose to use the same strategies to marginalize the European Minority as Hitler used against the Jews. Over the past 20 years they have implemented many programs, some legislated and some not, that have as their aim the destruction of the European minority. These policies have been held up as redistribution of wealth and transformation. However, they are true to communistic guidelines with the aim to bring into line those who do not align with their views.

These include the exclusion of the European minority from business ownership, trade and employment. The European minority is also excluded from accessing tertiary education as well as school education in their home language. Their defense mechanisms have been removed through disarmament, and the removal of the effective policing structures that protected them, which places them in grave danger of being tortured and attacked.

As a result of these strategic economic policies, approximately a million of the European Minority members are now displaced and living in abject poverty, with a large percentage of the remaining members barely surviving financially. The second transition will push them over the edge into displacement. However, the immediate crisis is but two weeks away, a countdown that do not bode well for the most vulnerable members who have already been marginalized and traumatized. They will loose the one meal a day that is currently supplied by retail food chains.

The government has systematically removed any assistance or aid they may get. They are excluded from receiving state welfare or other benefits. Furthermore, Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and charities are precluded from allocating more than 9% (the demographic proportion of Europeans) of their resources to ease their plight. Government enforces this through the interception of NGO and International donor funding by the President’s Office. As a result, the European minority ethnic group affected by policies of redress has been left with no hope and absolutely no opportunities to work their way out of the situation they find themselves in.

Now the final blow

Nelson Mandela’s ANC gazetted new legislation, effective December 2, 2012 that will reduce the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) status of companies that donate to charities assisting minority members. BEE status effectively ensures that a company can obtain business in South Africa. 

This will affect orphanages, displaced people camps, old age homes, Safe houses and NGO’s similar to Childline and Rape Crisis. Although many are already forced through current legislation to refuse people assistance, the new legislation will also force them to abandon the current European Minority members.

Charities need funds to help others. Companies need funds to donate to charities. This well-orchestrated assault will effectively break the cycle and remove any recourse to destitute and vulnerable European Minority members. This will force orphanages, safe houses and old age facilities to now abandon Europeans and prohibit companies to supply the only meal to many homeless and displaced people, including the elderly and children.

Deliberately inflicting on the European Minority conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part. This in itself meets one of the five criteria to proof genocide, notwithstanding that any of the criteria should be met to meet the definition of genocide. There are detailed examples of actions taken by the South African government that meet all criteria below:

1. Killing members of the group; or
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to the group; or
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; or
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; or
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Genocide Watch determined during an intensive investigation during July this year that there is evidence that meet the first criteria; murder, rape, mutilation and torture. South African police fail to investigate or solve many of these murders, which are carried out by organized gangs, often armed with weapons that police have previously confiscated. 

The racial character of the killing is covered up by a SA government order prohibiting police from reporting murders by race. Instead the crisis is denied and the murders are dismissed as ordinary crime, ignoring the frequent mutilation of the victims’ bodies, a sure sign that these are hate crimes.

Police abuse and intimidation have proven to cause serious physical and mental harm to the European Minority, which meets the second crieteria, as set out in our article, Police: Protector or Predator?

The first three criteria automatically bring about conditions to ensure the forth and fifth criteria, compounded by deliberate actions and policies by the ANC government to ensure effectiveness.

Operation Final Countdown

Friends 4 Humanity is launching Operation Final Countdown to attempt to prevent a human catastrophe of epic proportions that will paralyze the most vulnerable members of the European Minority.

It is imperative that we create a safety net to ensure the protection of the 96,000 orphans, undetermined amount of elderly, children in safe houses and approximately a million displaced people that will be affected by the new legislation when companies implement measures to ensure their BEE status.

Companies will redirect their funding to charities that comply, to comply; charities will have to immediately abandon the European Minority Beneficiaries. The ANC government ensured that these abandoned and vulnerable persons are left without recourse by limiting the timeframe between announcement and implementation to three weeks. It is anticipated that they will implement this legislation in the same manner as they have done with similar human rights abusive legislation, ignore opposition and force compliance.

We trust in the integrity of people’s convictions to oppose these racist policies and we established a task team in South Africa to immediately contact charities who refuse to abandon their European beneficiaries to arrange for alternative funding and determine which of these charities will be able to accommodate people left destitute.

It is envisaged that the majority of the abandoned orphans and children from places of safety will end up in displaced camps or on the street. As previously reported, these children are favored by Nigerian and police child prostitution syndicates who use the lack of human trafficking legislation in South Africa to manage their despicable operations. 

Once on the streets, we have 48 hours to find them before they are kidnapped and subjected to the 21 day cycle of abuse, gang raped and force-fed drugs. After this, these children are scarred for life and few are able to recover. We hope to arrange with charities that choose to comply with the new legislation not to abandon the children but transfer them to charities or facilities that will accommodate them.

It is expected that some families will ensure the care of their elderly but it has to be realized that many family members of the elderly are already marginalised  homeless or displaced, hence their stay in charity based old age homes, which translates into many of the elderly also ending up in over extended displaced camps with little or no hygienic facilities or food sources. As with the case of the orphans, we will attempt find alternative funding for charities and to relocate the elderly to these facilities.

The estimated million displaced people face the loss of the one meal a day or every second day, that is currently provided to them by benefactors, which are mainly soup kitchens sponsored by retail food chains. The benefactor companies will have no choice but to withdraw donations from these soup kitchens as it will impact their operations if their BEE status is affected. 

The ANC government effectively reaches their genocidal goal by starving the displaced Europeans and orchestrating conditions to ensure their demise.

Ironically, this legislation was announced soon after the visit by Hillary Clinton to South Africa to strengthen economic ties. A new initiative by USAid was also announced that will make $150-million available to small and medium businesses in South Africa, notwithstanding that this will exclude, through legislation any members of the European Minority. Mrs Clinton also hailed the ANC for their contribution to human rights in South Africa, despite clear evidence of the contrary.

Another irony is the honor bestowed on President Zuma, who received honorary citizenship of Texas and the freedom of the City of Houston in 2011. Whether this is done out of ignorance or political manipulation, only Americans can enforce adequate pressure on their government to not only stop enabling the ANC but to intervene.

How can you help?

It is envisaged that the ANC government will strongly oppose any remedial assistance to these destitute children, elderly and displaced. The only way we can ensure their safety and security and that of the volunteers and charities that wish to participate in the intervention, will be an extremely visible and public awareness campaign. This can only be achieved with your help, please help us to help this vulnerable section of the European minority. If you are unable to help, please tell someone that can.

Your donations will ensure the funding for charities that refuse to comply and will be crucial to establish immediate food relief as well as long term solutions for the approximately million displaced people.

The Stanton Commission of Inquiry, through Genocide Watch, will investigate and determine who exactly is behind the Genocide of the European Minority. Your public support and donations to the Commission and Secretariat will ensure intervention, to not only end these atrocities, but launch long term solutions and secure International legal action against the perpetrators.

We established the Genocide Intervention Fund and trust you will support it – thefriends4humanity@gmail.com